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Expected Value Calculator

Statistics
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Calculates the long-term average outcome (mean) of a random variable.

How To Use

How to use this calculator

Start with your values, or try a preset.

Step 1

Enter Outcome 1 Value, Probability of Outcome 1 (%), Outcome 2 Value, Probability of Outcome 2 (%), Outcome 3 Value, Probability of Outcome 3 (%), Outcome 4 Value, and Probability of Outcome 4 (%) in the units shown.

Step 2

Read Probability 4 (Decimal), Probability 3 (Decimal), Probability 2 (Decimal), Probability 1 (Decimal), and Expected Value in the results panel. Results update as you change the inputs.

Step 3

Choose a preset to load an example, then adjust the values for your situation.

Worked Examples

Example calculations

See the inputs and their calculated results.

Coin Flip (Heads)

Outcome 1 Value: 2; Probability of Outcome 1 (%): 50 %; Outcome 2 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 2 (%): 50 %; Outcome 3 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 3 (%): 0 %; Outcome 4 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 4 (%): 0 %

Probability 4 (Decimal): 0; Probability 3 (Decimal): 0; Probability 2 (Decimal): 0.5; Probability 1 (Decimal): 0.5; Expected Value: 1

Coin Flip (Tails)

Outcome 1 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 1 (%): 50 %; Outcome 2 Value: 2; Probability of Outcome 2 (%): 50 %; Outcome 3 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 3 (%): 0 %; Outcome 4 Value: 0; Probability of Outcome 4 (%): 0 %

Probability 4 (Decimal): 0; Probability 3 (Decimal): 0; Probability 2 (Decimal): 0.5; Probability 1 (Decimal): 0.5; Expected Value: 1

Simple Dice Roll

Outcome 1 Value: 1; Probability of Outcome 1 (%): 16.67 %; Outcome 2 Value: 2; Probability of Outcome 2 (%): 16.67 %; Outcome 3 Value: 3; Probability of Outcome 3 (%): 16.67 %; Outcome 4 Value: 4; Probability of Outcome 4 (%): 16.67 %

Probability 4 (Decimal): 0.1667; Probability 3 (Decimal): 0.1667; Probability 2 (Decimal): 0.1667; Probability 1 (Decimal): 0.1667; Expected Value: 1.667

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